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The ongoing political ruckus regarding the new building of the Parliament does not seem to stop. The ruling party and the opposition are attacking each other with their respective arguments and claims. The exercise of demonstrating strength by garnering support from both sides is also going on.
The uproar over the new parliament is also being linked to the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. 19 parties have protested against the inauguration ceremony, out of which 3 are national level parties.
25 parties including 3 national level parties have also announced their participation in the inauguration. These include parties like BSP, YSR Congress, TDP and BJD. Recently, Nitish Kumar met BJD chief Naveen Patnaik to form an opposition unity.
On the pretext of a new parliament, political parties are also trying to fit the issues and strategy for Mission 2024. Let’s know it in detail…
Can the 2024 election issue be fixed?
The election issue of 2024 can be decided on the pretext of new parliament. Both the parties are trying to make the issue as per their convenience. For example- BJP is trying to practice Hindutva with the help of Sengol in Parliament.
The party will try to capitalize on this in some states of South and North India including Tamil Nadu. It is also fit for BJP in terms of ideology. Not only this, Savarkar’s birth anniversary is also on May 28, the day of the inauguration of the Parliament.
The political roots of first Sangh and later BJP rests on Savarkar’s Hindutva concept. On the other hand, the opposition parties are also trying to decide the issues according to their convenience.
The opposition parties, including the Congress, have linked the non-calling of the President to the inauguration of Parliament with tribal insult. Tribal vote bank is very important for political parties in terms of Loksabha elections.
According to the 2011 census, the number of tribals in the country was more than 100 million, which is 8 percent of the total population. 47 seats are reserved for tribals in the Lok Sabha. In 2019, the NDA alliance had won more than 35 seats.
Before the Lok Sabha, assembly elections are to be held in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Telangana. Of these, tribal voters dominate in Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Madhya Pradesh.
Along with insulting the tribals, the opposition parties are also busy raising the issue of violation of the constitution. Political experts say that this issue has been raised to unite the opposition parties.
In 1977, both Left and Right united against the leader of Dhruv, Indira Gandhi, chanting the slogan of saving the Constitution.
become a tool for strategy
The inauguration of the new parliament has also become a medium for political parties to prepare their strategy for 2024. BJP is working on a strategy to establish roots in Tamil Nadu by placing Sengol near the Speaker’s chair.
Instead of coming on the backfoot with the strategy of the opposition, the BJP is aggressive on this issue. The party has fielded an army of ministers under the leadership of Amit Shah, who are accusing the government of defaming the issue.
Here, all the opposition parties including the Congress are working on the strategy ahead. AAP’s effort is that on the pretext of this issue, all the opposition parties in the Rajya Sabha together oppose the Delhi Ordinance. After the recent Supreme Court verdict, the Modi government has brought an ordinance on Delhi.
Opposition parties are making a strategy to surround the government on the issue of deputy speaker on the pretext of opening the parliament. Trinamool MP Derek-O’Brien has said that more than 4 years have passed, but the government has not yet conducted the election of the Deputy Speaker in the Lok Sabha.
After the Modi government came to power in 2014, the post of deputy speaker went to AIADMK’s account, but after 2019, elections were not held for this post.
opposition unit’s first show of strength
The inauguration of the Parliament is considered to be the first show of strength of the opposition Eka, which is very important for the Lok Sabha elections 2024. After Nitish Kumar’s effort, there was speculation about the number of parties in the opposition alliance, but now the picture is almost clear.
The opposition alliance includes parties like Congress, SP, Trinamool, DMK, NCP, Shiv Sena (UT), CPM, CPI, Kerala Congress, IUML, RSP, RJD, JDU, JMM, MDMK, AAP, RLD and VCK.
Most of the parties in the opposition alliance are from Bihar, Jharkhand, Bengal, UP, Kerala, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu. AAP and CPM are also national parties, but AAP Delhi’s dominance is Delhi and Punjab while CPM’s dominance is limited to Kerala.
At present, in terms of numbers, the parties standing in opposition have 156 MPs in the Lok Sabha, while the strength of these parties is more in the Rajya Sabha. These 19 parties have 104 out of 250 seats in the Rajya Sabha.
Interestingly, if all these parties come together, then in the 2024 elections, BJP will have to fight directly on more than 450 seats. This is also the strategy of many opposition parties including JDU, RJD and Congress.
The 19 parties which have issued a joint letter against the inauguration of the Parliament. In 2019, his vote percentage was around 45 per cent. The vote percentage of the BJP, which won 303 seats in the 2019 elections, was 37 per cent.
In such a situation, if the votes of these parties are outright in Bihar, Maharashtra, UP, Jharkhand and Bengal, then BJP’s difficulties may increase. There are more than 200 seats in the Lok Sabha in these 5 states only, in which the NDA has about 150 seats.
NDA’s clan is increasing?
After the departure of Nitish Kumar, Sukhbir Badal and Uddhav Thackeray, the NDA had become very weak. There was also a split in the LJP, which was part of the NDA. In such a situation, even in states like Bihar, Punjab and Maharashtra, it remains a challenge for the BJP to equalize seats.
However, the way many parties have openly supported the BJP in the inauguration of Parliament, it is being speculated whether the BJP, NDA will be stronger?
Atal Bihari Vajpayee and George Fernandez together formed the NDA 25 years ago. At that time 24 parties were involved in this alliance. BJP has got the support of 25 parties even on the issue of Parliament inauguration.
Old allies SAD, JDS and TDP have also announced their support. Apart from this, BSP, BJD and YSR Congress have also come in support. If you look at the new equation, BJP has got strong allies in states like Karnataka, Andhra, Odisha on the pretext of opening the Parliament.
If this party joins the electoral alliance, then BJP can get strength in 50 more seats. There can also be a show of strength by these parties on the day of the inauguration of the Parliament.
Talking about the current numbers, the parties which have supported the government on the issue of Parliament inauguration, have 131 seats in the Rajya Sabha, which is much more than the majority figure.
These 25 parties have 376 MPs in the Lok Sabha, which is a little less than two-thirds.
These parties have no stand, will spoil the game?
INLD of Haryana, BRS and AIMIM of Telangana, PDP of Jammu and Kashmir and Subhaspa of UP have not taken any clear stand on the inauguration. Apart from this, many other small parties are also included in this list.
AIMIM has its presence in Telangana as well as in Maharashtra and Bihar. Its chief Asaduddin Owaisi has demanded the inauguration of the Parliament from the Speaker of the Lok Sabha itself.
The parties which have not yet taken any stand on the inauguration of the Parliament, those parties also have a lot of influence on the seats in the Lok Sabha. The five parties have the ability to spoil the game on about 40 seats in the Lok Sabha.
Talking about the present numbers, these small parties have 11 seats in the Lok Sabha, while 7 seats in the Rajya Sabha are occupied by these parties. These parties can also spoil the game in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections.
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